COVID-19 Trends 05/01/2020

I live in Texas, so all of what follows will have a markedly United States and Texas lens, so know that going in. All data is pulled from Johns Hopkins and the COVID Tracking Project and re-visualized on my site.

Before I get into current state, now that we have flipped the calendar into a new month, I think it’s important to remember where we were on the first of April. It provides key perspective on where we sit today.

On 04/01/2020, the United States was just wrapping up the “15 days to slow the pandemic” put forth by the White House, most people had been sheltering in place (US version) for at least two weeks, and in Texas, we were 4 days into Governor Abbott’s shelter in place (sorta) order. What was the level of cases and deaths on the first of April?

  • US Cases — 213,214, with a 14 day daily case average of 14,688 new cases
  • US Deaths — 4,753, with a 7 day daily death average of 544
  • Texas Cases — 4,355, with a 14 day daily case average of 298 new cases
  • Texas Deaths — 66 deaths, with a 7 day daily death average of 7.29

Those are the numbers that had us sheltering in place, closing down all but essential businesses. Please keep that in mind as you review where we are today, knowing states all over the US, specifically Texas on 05/01, have “opened” back up. The virus isn’t better. It isn’t gone. It’s just been biding its time, knowing how impatient we are, and now it will have soooooo many more choices.

On to the current numbers.

  1. World — 3,343,686 cases (+86,931 today), 238,642 deaths (+5,262 today). The 14 day average is so flat. Just about 80k cases every day for the past several weeks.

2. Countries per 1M — The US is 18th on Testing per 1M people, testing 1.98% of the population, below Belgium and ahead of Finland. We are 7th in Cases per 1M people at 3,333, with a 16.84% positive rate, just below Italy and ahead of the United Kingdom. And finally, the US is 10th in Deaths per 1M people at 196.2, with a 5.89% mortality rate, just below Switzerland and ahead of Portugal.

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3. US — 1,103,295 cases (+34,037 today), 64,938 deaths (+1,947 today). We have tested 6,552,629 (+319,291 today).

On 04/01, we had averaged 14,688 new cases per day over the previous 14. On 05/01, we are averaging 28,839 new cases per day over the previous 14. And yet somehow we are ready to open.

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4. US Cases by Day — This chart shows the daily cases by day of the week since 3/2, with each week having its own “wave”. Today was the 3rd highest Friday case total. One person’s opinion, but things really started shutting down the week of 3/16, the yellow line on the chart. Yeah, one way down toward the bottom. Is now the time to re-open?

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5. States per 100k — Texas is in 47th on Testing per 100k people, with 1,213 tests per 100k. We are 42nd in Cases per 100k at 102.4, with a 8.44% positive rate, behind North Carolina and ahead of Minnesota. Texas is 42nd in Deaths per 100k people at 2.90, with a 2.83% mortality rate, behind Tennessee and ahead of West Virginia. I know it makes it a bit of an eye chart, but all states are on the chart so you can see the scale of where Texas lands.

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6. Texas — 29,692 cases (+965 today), 840 deaths (+28 today), 351,775 tests (+36,985 today, but I really think it’s two days combined).

On 04/01, Texas had averaged 298 new cases per day over the previous 14. On 05/01, Texas is averaging 845 new cases per day over the previous 14. And yet somehow we are ready to open.

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7. TX Cases by Day — This chart shows the daily cases in Texas by day of the week since 3/2, with each week having its own “wave”. Today was the 3rd highest Friday case total, but oh man, look how closely those lines are intertwined. One person’s opinion, but the Governor issued his order on 3/27, the green line on the chart. Are we back close to even that level yet? Nope. Nervous about opening Texas yet?

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8. Texas Counties — Top 5 on cases are Harris (6,551), Dallas (3,718), Tarrant (2,246), Travis (1,683), and Bexar (1,374). 37 counties have 100+ cases, 117 have 10+, and 212 have at least 1 case. 18 counties have lost 10+ Texans, 91 have lost at least 1. The map looks like a really bad case of the chicken pox because the virus doesn’t really care about labels like county lines. It’s just looking for hosts. It will go anywhere, anytime it gets a chance.

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9. TX Counties per 10k — Top 5 on Cases per 10k residents are Moore, Donley, Panola, Sherman, and Mason. The virus is all over the state, not just the big counties.

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And here are just the numbers for Texas, no graphs.

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I’ll keep updating things daily. I believe people need to see the numbers at all levels to really understand things. Hopefully a few of you out there find this useful. Please feel free to grab screenshots from here or the actual dashboards and share them anywhere you can.

Thanks for reading all the way to the bottom.

Stay in if you can. Stay safe.

Mobile friendly version of the dashboards is here: bit.ly/uscovid19mapm

Regular version (where I pull all of these screenshots from) is here: bit.ly/uscovid19map

I chart Texas Politics at christackettnow.com and write about things that matter (to me at least) whenever the muse hits.

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