COVID-19 Trends 05/04/2020

I live in Texas, so all of what follows will have a markedly United States and Texas lens, so know that going in. All data is pulled from Johns Hopkins and the COVID Tracking Project and re-visualized on my site.

  1. World — 3,582,379 cases (+76,222 today), 251,526 deaths (+4,066 today). The 14 day average is so flat. Just about 80k cases every day for the past several weeks.
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2. Countries per 1M — The US is 18th on Testing per 1M people, testing 2.2% of the population, below Belgium and ahead of the United Kingdom. We have moved up two spots to 5th in Cases per 1M people at 3,566, with a 16.2% positive rate, just below Belgium and ahead of Italy. And finally, the US moved up 1 spot to 9th in Deaths per 1M people at 208.22, with a 5.84% mortality rate, just below Ireland and ahead of Switzerland.

3. US — 1,180,209 cases (+22,335 today), 68,917 deaths (+1,240 today). We have tested 7,286,551 (+231,765 today). 14 day daily case average is very flat, with an average of 28k+ every day going back to the beginning of April.

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When you look at the time frame 04/01 to 05/04/2020, it’s worth noting New York, who drove so much of the case growth, has seen their daily cases drop to less that 5,000 on the 14 day case average, while the rest of the United States (minus New York), has seen a steady climb in daily cases. New York is pulling the overall daily average down. The reality almost everyone else is seeing cases push ever upward.

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4. US Cases by Day — This chart shows the daily cases by day of the week since 3/2, with each week having its own “wave”. Last week closed out with the 5th highest Sunday, and we opened the week with the 5th highest Monday. But all of the numbers are still quite bunched together. One person’s opinion, but things really started shutting down the week of 3/16, the yellow line on the chart. Yeah, one way down toward the bottom. Is now the time to re-open?

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5. States per 100k — Texas is in 44th on Testing per 100k people, with 1,405 tests per 100k. We are 43rd in Cases per 100k at 113.06, with a 8.05% positive rate, behind North Carolina and ahead of Wyoming. Texas is 42nd in Deaths per 100k people at 3.11, with a 2.75% mortality rate, behind Tennessee and ahead of West Virginia. I know it makes it a bit of an eye chart, but all states are on the chart so you can see the scale of where Texas lands.

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6. Texas — 32,783 cases (+785 today), 901 deaths (+23 today), 407,398 tests (+16,838 today). The 14 day daily case average is heading back up. The 7 day daily death average certainly is too.

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I’m zooming in on the daily cases and daily deaths for Texas. They are pushing up at a time when the Governor has opened up the state.

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7. TX Cases by Day — This chart shows the daily cases in Texas by day of the week since 3/2, with each week having its own “wave”. We closed last week with the highest Sunday case total, which followed the highest Saturday case total, highest Thursday case total, and highest Tuesday case total. Actually, last week was the HIGHEST case week yet for Texas. And we started this week with the second highest Monday. Nervous about opening Texas yet?

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8. Texas Counties — Top 5 on cases are Harris (6,967), Dallas (4,370), Tarrant (2,584), Travis (1,816), and Bexar (1,585). 37 counties have 100+ cases, 122 have 10+, and 214 have at least 1 case. 18 counties have lost 10+ Texans, 93 have lost at least 1. The map looks like a really bad case of the chicken pox because the virus doesn’t really care about labels like county lines. It’s just looking for hosts. It will go anywhere, anytime it gets a chance.

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9. TX Counties per 10k — Top 5 on Cases per 10k residents are Moore, Donley, Potter, Sherman, and Panola. The virus is all over the state, not just the big counties.

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And here are just the numbers for Texas, no graphs.

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I’ll keep updating things daily. I believe people need to see the numbers at all levels to really understand things. Hopefully a few of you out there find this useful. Please feel free to grab screenshots from here or the actual dashboards and share them anywhere you can.

Thanks for reading all the way to the bottom.

Stay in if you can. Stay safe.

Mobile friendly version of the dashboards is here: bit.ly/uscovid19mapm

Regular version (where I pull all of these screenshots from) is here: bit.ly/uscovid19map

I chart Texas Politics at christackettnow.com and write about things that matter (to me at least) whenever the muse hits.

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