COVID-19 Trends 05/08/2020

I live in Texas, so all of what follows will have a markedly United States and Texas lens, so know that going in. All data is pulled from Johns Hopkins and the COVID Tracking Project and re-visualized on my site.

  1. World — 3,937,449 cases (+92,285 today), 274,877 deaths (+5,331 today). The 14 day average is so flat. Just about 80k cases every day for the past several weeks.
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2. Countries per 1M — The US is 18th on Testing per 1M people, testing 2.54% of the population, below Czechia and ahead of the United Kingdom. We are 5th in Cases per 1M people at 3,878, with a 15.26% positive rate, just below Belgium and ahead of Singapore. And finally, the US is 9th in Deaths per 1M people at 233.17, with a 6.01% mortality rate, just below Ireland and ahead of Switzerland.

3. US — 1,283,762 cases (+26,906 today), 77,175 deaths (+1,518 today). We have tested 8,409,676 (+302,873 today). 14 day daily case average is mostly flat, declining slightly, with an average that dipped below 28k+ for the first time since April 9th. The decline is mostly about New York. Remove them, and the average is actually increasing. The US minus New York chart is just below this one.

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4. US Cases by Day — This chart shows the daily cases by day of the week since 3/2, with each week having its own “wave”. In a tiny bit of good news, this was the lowest Friday in a while, still 6th lowest, but actually a little gap between the past few weeks. One person’s opinion, but things really started shutting down the week of 3/16, the yellow line on the chart. Yeah, one way down toward the bottom. Is now the time to re-open? And is now the (relative) calm before the storm, the result of shelter in place?

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5. States per 100k — Texas is in 46th on Testing per 100k people, with 1,645 tests per 100k. We are 41st in Cases per 100k at 128.45, with a 7.81% positive rate, behind North Carolina and ahead of Arkansas. Texas is 42nd in Deaths per 100k people at 3.53, with a 2.75% mortality rate, behind Tennessee and ahead of South Dakota. I know it makes it a bit of an eye chart, but all states are on the chart so you can see the scale of where Texas lands.

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6. **NEW CHART** Ok, so I did the Top 12 States earlier in the week, but it didn’t show you everyone. So I went back to try and get all 50 States and their 14 Day Daily Case Average onto the same page and still make it useful. I think I was able to do it. For the colors:

  • (Blue) for states that looks to have consistently pulled their numbers down from peak
  • (Orange) for states that have bent and reduced, but not necessarily sustained yet
  • (Red) for states that are inconsistent, flat or rising
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7. Texas — 37,246 cases (+1,210 today), 1,025 deaths (+40 today), 477,118 tests (+21,956 today). The 14 day daily case average is heading back up. And in bizzaro world, that means open things back up.

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8. TX Cases by Day — This chart shows the daily cases in Texas by day of the week since 3/2, with each week having its own “wave”. Cases stayed lower than normal on Thursday, but this was our highest Friday yet. Nervous about opening Texas yet? I know I am.

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9. Texas Counties — Top 5 on cases are Harris (7,594), Dallas (5,369), Tarrant (2,956), Travis (2,071), and Bexar (1,805). 43 counties have 100+ cases, 129 have 10+, and 219 have at least 1 case. 21 counties have lost 10+ Texans, 97 have lost at least 1. The map looks like a really bad case of the chicken pox because the virus doesn’t really care about labels like county lines. It’s just looking for hosts. It will go anywhere, anytime it gets a chance.

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10. TX Counties per 10k — Top 5 on Cases per 10k residents are Moore, Potter, Donley, Panola, and Mason. The virus is all over the state, not just the big counties.

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I’ll keep updating things daily. I believe people need to see the numbers at all levels to really understand things. Hopefully a few of you out there find this useful. Please feel free to grab screenshots from here or the actual dashboards and share them anywhere you can.

Thanks for reading all the way to the bottom.

Stay in if you can. Stay safe.

Mobile friendly version of the dashboards is here: bit.ly/uscovid19mapm

Regular version (where I pull all of these screenshots from) is here: bit.ly/uscovid19map

I chart Texas Politics at christackettnow.com and write about things that matter (to me at least) whenever the muse hits.

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