COVID-19 Trends 05/12/2020

I live in Texas, so all of what follows will have a markedly United States and Texas lens, so know that going in. All data is pulled from Johns Hopkins and the COVID Tracking Project and re-visualized on my site.

  1. World — 4,261,116 cases (+84,383 today), 291,934 deaths (+5,634 today). The 14 day average remains flat. Just about 80k cases every day for the past several weeks.
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2. Countries per 1M — The US is 18th on Testing per 1M people, testing 2.94% of the population, below the United Kingdom and ahead of Czechia. We are 6th in Cases per 1M people at 4,137, with a 14.08% positive rate, just below Singapore and ahead of Italy. And finally, the US is 9th in Deaths per 1M people at 248.87, with a 6.01% mortality rate, just below Ireland and ahead of Switzerland.

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3. US — 1,369,403 cases (+21,693 today), 82,371 deaths (+1,694 today). We have tested 9,636,755 (+289,101 today). 14 day daily case average is down to 25,499, and declining.

But if you remove the initial hotspot around NY / NJ / CT, the trend looks different. Yep, going up. So although the initial outbreak areas are improving, with declining cases and deaths, in most of the rest of the country, cases are going up and deaths are very flat.

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4. US Cases by Day — This chart shows the daily cases by day of the week since 3/2, with each week having its own “wave”. We had the lowest Tuesday in weeks (green line), when you look at the US as a whole. But consider what I just showed you above. This is not the time to let up and reduce our focus.

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5. States per 100k — Texas is in 49th on Testing per 100k people, with 1,813 tests per 100k. We are 41st in Cases per 100k at 142.89, with a 7.88% positive rate, behind Vermont and ahead of Arkansas. Texas is 41st in Deaths per 100k people at 3.95, with a 2.77% mortality rate, behind Idaho and ahead of South Dakota. I know it makes it a bit of an eye chart, but all states are on the chart so you can see the scale of where Texas lands.

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6. Texas — 41,432 cases (+877 today), 1,146 deaths (+29 today), 525,697 tests (+0 today, which I’m sure is a reporting error. Expect a big number tomorrow). The 14 day daily case average is heading back up, sitting at 1,076 per day. And in bizzaro world, that means open things back up.

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7. TX Cases by Day — This chart shows the daily cases in Texas by day of the week since 3/2, with each week having its own “wave”. This was our 3rd highest Tuesday, and when taken on average with our highest Monday isn’t great. Nervous about opening Texas yet? I know I am.

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8. Texas Counties — Top 5 on cases are Harris (8,416), Dallas (6,123), Tarrant (3,745), Travis (2,235), and Bexar (1,901). 46 counties have 100+ cases, 130 have 10+, and 220 have at least 1 case. 3 counties have lost 100+ Texans, 21 counties have lost 10+, 100 have lost at least 1. The map looks like a really bad case of the chicken pox because the virus doesn’t really care about labels like county lines. It’s just looking for hosts. It will go anywhere, anytime it gets a chance.

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9. TX Counties per 10k — Top 5 on Cases per 10k residents are Moore, Potter, Donley, Sherman, and Panola. The virus is all over the state, not just the big counties.

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I’ll keep updating things daily. I believe people need to see the numbers at all levels to really understand things. Hopefully a few of you out there find this useful. Please feel free to grab screenshots from here or the actual dashboards and share them anywhere you can.

Thanks for reading all the way to the bottom.

Stay in if you can. Stay safe.

Mobile friendly version of the dashboards is here: bit.ly/uscovid19mapm

Regular version (where I pull all of these screenshots from) is here: bit.ly/uscovid19map

I chart Texas Politics at christackettnow.com and write about things that matter (to me at least) whenever the muse hits.

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