COVID-19 Trends 05/14/2020

I live in Texas, so all of what follows will have a markedly United States and Texas lens, so know that going in. All data is pulled from Johns Hopkins and the COVID Tracking Project and re-visualized on my site.

  1. World — 4,441,139 cases (+95,039 today), 302,380 deaths (+5,215 today). The 14 day average remains mostly flat, but is ticking up slightly. Just over 80k cases every day for the past several weeks.
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2. Countries per 100k — I have adjusted this per capita chart to “per 100k”, which is more aligned with how others are reporting country level per capita. The US is now 20th on Testing per 100k people, testing 3.09% of the population, below the Czechia and ahead of Belgium. As the US brags about doing the most tests, you can see as we ramp up testing, everyone else is too, so per capita, we end up falling further behind. We are 6th in Cases per 100k people at 428, with a 13.88% positive rate, just below Singapore and ahead of Italy. And finally, the US is 9th in Deaths per 100k people at 25.95, with a 6.06% mortality rate, just below Ireland and ahead of Switzerland.

3. US — 1,417,603 cases (+27,368 today), 85,893 deaths (+1,779 today). We have tested 10,341,018 (+367,349 today). 14 day daily case average is down to 24,881 and declining.

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But if you remove the initial hotspot around NY / NJ / CT, the trend looks different. Yep, going up. So although the initial outbreak areas are improving, with declining cases and deaths, in most of the rest of the country, cases are going up and deaths are very flat.

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4. US Cases by Day — This chart shows the daily cases by day of the week since 3/2, with each week having its own “wave”. We had the lowest Thursday in weeks (thicker green line), when you look at the US as a whole. But consider what I just showed you above. This is not the time to let up and reduce our focus.

5. States per 10k — I have adjusted this per capita chart to “per 10k”, which is more aligned with how others are reporting state level per capita. Texas is 40th on Testing, with 214 tests per 10k people. We are 40th in Cases per 10k at 15.34, with a 7.14% positive rate, behind South Carolina and ahead of Vermont. Texas is 41st in Deaths per 10k people at 0.43, with a 2.78% mortality rate, behind South Dakota and ahead of Tennessee. I know it makes it a bit of an eye chart, but all states are on the chart so you can see the scale of where Texas lands.

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6. It’s Friday, so time for another 50 State look at trends. Blue is a 50% reduction from peak and continuing down. Orange is a 25% reduction from peak and continuing down. Red is inconsistent, flat, or rising.

7 Blue states, 8 Orange states, 35 Red states. Gulp.

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7. Texas — 44,480 cases (+1,460 today), 1,235 deaths (+63 today), 623,284 tests (+35,853 today). The 14 day daily case average continues to rise, sitting at 1,125 per day. And in bizzaro world, that means open things back up.

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8. TX Cases by Day — This chart shows the daily cases in Texas by day of the week since 3/2, with each week having its own “wave”. This was our 2nd highest Thursday (by 10 cases), coming after our highest Wednesday and highest Monday. Nervous about opening Texas yet? I know I am. Because the cases from “opening” the state likely won’t start showing up until next week.

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9. Texas Counties — Top 5 on cases are Harris (8,817), Dallas (6,837), Tarrant (4,076), Travis (2,345), and Bexar (1,976). 50 counties have 100+ cases, 134 have 10+, and 220 have at least 1 case. 3 counties have lost 100+ Texans, 23 counties have lost 10+, 101 have lost at least 1. The map looks like a really bad case of the chicken pox because the virus doesn’t really care about labels like county lines. It’s just looking for hosts. It will go anywhere, anytime it gets a chance.

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10. TX Counties per 1k — I have adjusted this per capita chart to “per 1k”, which is more aligned with how others are reporting county level per capita. Top 5 on Cases per 1k residents are Moore, Potter, Donley, Panola, and Sherman. The virus is all over the state, not just the big counties.

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I’ll keep updating things daily. I believe people need to see the numbers at all levels to really understand things. Hopefully a few of you out there find this useful. Please feel free to grab screenshots from here or the actual dashboards and share them anywhere you can.

Thanks for reading all the way to the bottom.

Stay in if you can. Stay safe.

Mobile friendly version of the dashboards is here: bit.ly/uscovid19mapm

Regular version (where I pull all of these screenshots from) is here: bit.ly/uscovid19map

I chart Texas Politics at christackettnow.com and write about things that matter (to me at least) whenever the muse hits.

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