COVID-19 Trends 05/16/2020

I live in Texas, so all of what follows will have a markedly United States and Texas lens, so know that going in. All data is pulled from Johns Hopkins and the COVID Tracking Project and re-visualized on my site.

  1. World — 4,632,627 cases (+91,515 today), 311,736 deaths (+4,112 today). The 14 day average remains mostly flat, but is ticking up slightly. Over the past week, the 14 day average has moved from the 80k it had been at for weeks up to 86k today.
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2. Countries per 100k — The US is 18th on Testing per 100k people, testing 3.35% of the population, below the Canada and ahead of Belarus. As the US brags about doing the most tests, you can see as we ramp up testing, everyone else is too, so per capita, we stay pretty static. We are 6th in Cases per 100k people at 443, with a 13.25% positive rate, just below Singapore and ahead of Italy. And finally, the US is 9th in Deaths per 100k people at 26.81, with a 6.05% mortality rate, just below Ireland and ahead of Switzerland.

3. US — 1,467,647 cases (+24,994 today), 88,749 deaths (+1,224 today). We have tested 11,077,253 (+358,311 today). 14 day daily case average is down to 23,948 and declining.

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4. US Cases by Day — This chart shows the daily cases by day of the week since 3/2, with each week having its own “wave”. We had the lowest Saturday in weeks (thicker green line), when you look at the US as a whole. But when you remove the great strides NY/NJ/CT, the initial hotspots, most of the rest of the country is either flat or rising on cases. This is not the time to let up and reduce our focus.

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5. States per 10k — Texas is 40th on Testing, with 234 tests per 10k people. We are 40th in Cases per 10k at 16.37, with a 6.99% positive rate, behind South Carolina and ahead of Arkansas. Texas is 41st in Deaths per 10k people at 0.45, with a 2.78% mortality rate, behind South Dakota and ahead of Tennessee. I know it makes it a bit of an eye chart, but all states are on the chart so you can see the scale of where Texas lands.

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6. **New Charts** I’ve had lots of folks tell me that as testing goes up, of course you will see cases go up. And so a declining positive case rate (daily cases / daily tests) means we are winning. I decided to graph it on all 50 states and adding the daily case trend as well. Every state is testing more. So pretty much every state has a lower positive case rate. Not the best measure of things. You will see looking at the charts that states getting a real handle on the virus, those ready to safely open have greatly lowered their daily case rate and have low positive case rates. They are the ones winning.

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7. Texas — 47,452 cases (+1,731 today), 1,318 deaths (+38 today), 678,471 tests (+32,479 today). The 14 day daily case average continues to rise, sitting at 1,181 per day. And in bizzaro world, that means Governor Abbott will announce even more things open up on Monday.

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8. TX Cases by Day — This chart shows the daily cases in Texas by day of the week since 3/2, with each week having its own “wave”. This was our highest Saturday, coming after our highest Monday, highest Wednesday, and our highest Friday. Nervous about opening even more of Texas yet? I know I am. Because the cases from “opening” the state on 05/01 have just now started showing up. Next week likely won’t be any better and could be worse.

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9. Texas Counties — Top 5 on cases are Harris (9,126), Dallas (7,250), Tarrant (4,266), Travis (2,425), and Bexar (2,120). 10 counties have over 1,000 cases, 51 counties have 100+ cases, 134 have 10+, and 223 have at least 1 case. 3 counties have lost 100+ Texans, 27 counties have lost 10+, 102 have lost at least 1. The map looks like a really bad case of the chicken pox because the virus doesn’t really care about labels like county lines. It’s just looking for hosts. It will go anywhere, anytime it gets a chance.

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10. TX Counties per 1k — Top 5 on Cases per 1k residents are Moore (25.32), Potter (17.38), Donley (7.83), Panola (7.56), and Sherman (7.47). The virus is all over the state, not just the big counties.

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I’ll keep updating things daily. I believe people need to see the numbers at all levels to really understand things. Hopefully a few of you out there find this useful. Please feel free to grab screenshots from here or the actual dashboards and share them anywhere you can.

Thanks for reading all the way to the bottom.

Stay in if you can. Stay safe.

Mobile friendly version of the dashboards is here: bit.ly/uscovid19mapm

Regular version (where I pull all of these screenshots from) is here: bit.ly/uscovid19map

I chart Texas Politics at christackettnow.com and write about things that matter (to me at least) whenever the muse hits.

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