COVID-19 Trends 05/19/2020

I live in Texas, so all of what follows will have a markedly United States and Texas lens, so know that going in. All data is pulled from Johns Hopkins and the COVID Tracking Project and re-visualized on my site.

  1. World — 4,895,405 cases (+95,342 today), 323,235 deaths (+4,804 today). The 14 day average remains mostly flat, but is ticking up slightly. Over the past week, the 14 day average has moved from the 80k it had been at for weeks up to 88k today.
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2. Countries per 100k — The US is 17th on Testing per 100k people, testing 3.7% of the population, below the Germany and ahead of Canada. As the US brags about doing the most tests, you can see as we ramp up testing, everyone else is too, so per capita, we stay pretty static. We are 6th in Cases per 100k people at 461, with a 12.49% positive rate, just below Belgium and ahead of Italy. And finally, the US is 9th in Deaths per 100k people at 27.77, with a 6.01% mortality rate, just below Ireland and ahead of Switzerland.

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3. **NEW CHART** I’ve found that looking at a location individually gives some info, but looking at a lot of locations on the same page, looking at the same trend, it really imparts more. So, I took the top 30 countries on overall case count and captured their 14 Day Daily Case Averages. The trend lines are remarkable. You can see that pretty much all of the countries that had their outbreaks at the same time (surge in early March) have seen the peak and are now firmly down the other side. There are three notable exceptions: the United States, the United Kingdom, and Sweden. And, you can also see the explosion of cases in countries that are just now seeing their rise.

Of the Top 30, 11 Blue (66% reduction in daily cases from peak), 1 Orange (33% reduction in daily cases from peak), 18 Red (inconsistent, flat, or rising)

4. US — 1,528,395 cases (+20,260 today), 91,916 deaths (+1,574 today). We have tested 12,232,990 (+398,411 today). 14 day daily case average is down to 23,157 and declining, driven mostly by reductions in NY / NJ.

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5. US Cases by Day — This chart shows the daily cases by day of the week since 3/2, with each week having its own “wave”. The day of the week charts reflect the overall reduction in cases on a national level. Lots of places are still seeing case growth, and we still are nowhere near having this under control.

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6. States per 10k — Texas is 41st on Testing, with 256 tests per 10k people. We are 40th in Cases per 10k at 17.43, with a 6.79% positive rate, behind South Carolina and ahead of Arkansas. Texas is 41st in Deaths per 10k people at 0.48, with a 2.75% mortality rate, behind South Dakota and ahead of Tennessee. I know it makes it a bit of an eye chart, but all states are on the chart so you can see the scale of where Texas lands.

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7. Texas — 50,552 cases (+1,375 today), 1,388 deaths (+38 today), 744,937 tests (+21,924 today). The 14 day daily case average continues to rise, sitting at 1,188 per day. Yet now we open, we stop wearing masks, we stop social distancing, as though this is over.

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8. TX Cases by Day — This chart shows the daily cases in Texas by day of the week since 3/2, with each week having its own “wave”. Tuesday was the highest Tuesday yet, which just reflects the fact that the virus is still here and there are more people than ever to infect.

9. Texas Counties — Top 5 on cases are Harris (9,859), Dallas (7,904), Tarrant (4559), Travis (2,537), and Bexar (2,278). 10 counties have over 1,000 cases, 52 counties have 100+ cases, 137 have 10+, and 224 have at least 1 case. 3 counties have lost 100+ Texans, 28 counties have lost 10+, 104 have lost at least 1. The map looks like a really bad case of the chicken pox because the virus doesn’t really care about labels like county lines. It’s just looking for hosts. It will go anywhere, anytime it gets a chance.

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10. TX Counties per 1k — Top 5 on Cases per 1k residents are Moore (26.76), Potter (17.93), Donley (8.13), Panola (7.56), and Sherman (7.47). The virus is all over the state, not just the big counties.

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11. Here are the 14 Day Daily Case average for the top 24 Texas Counties. 3 Blue, 4 Orange, the rest are all Red. We are so far from done with the virus in Texas, but you’d never know it when you go to the store.

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I’ll keep updating things daily. I believe people need to see the numbers at all levels to really understand things. Hopefully a few of you out there find this useful. Please feel free to grab screenshots from here or the actual dashboards and share them anywhere you can.

Thanks for reading all the way to the bottom.

Stay in if you can. Stay safe.

Mobile friendly version of the dashboards is here: bit.ly/uscovid19mapm

Regular version (where I pull all of these screenshots from) is here: bit.ly/uscovid19map

I chart Texas Politics at christackettnow.com and write about things that matter (to me at least) whenever the muse hits.

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