COVID-19 Trends 05/21/2020

I live in Texas, so all of what follows will have a markedly United States and Texas lens, so know that going in. All data is pulled from Johns Hopkins and the COVID Tracking Project and re-visualized on my site.

  1. World — 5,102,424 cases (+105,952 today), 332,924 deaths (+4,809 today). The 14 day average remains mostly flat, but is ticking up slightly. Over the past week, the 14 day average has moved from the 80k it had been at for weeks up to 89k today. Today is the highest new case total yet.
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2. Countries per 100k — The US is 16th on Testing per 100k people, testing 3.7% of the population, below the Belarus and ahead of Norway. The US testing rate has finally reached the level where we start moving up a little. We are 6th in Cases per 100k people at 476, with a 11.17% positive rate, just below Belgium and ahead of Italy. And finally, the US is 9th in Deaths per 100k people at 28.61, with a 6.00% mortality rate, just below Ireland and ahead of Switzerland.

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3. **Friday Chart** Top 30 countries 14 Day Daily Case Average. This is the rolling trend to illustrate where different countries around the world are on their fight against the virus.

Of the Top 30, 11 Blue (66% reduction in daily cases from peak), 1 Orange (33% reduction in daily cases from peak), 18 Red (inconsistent, flat, or rising)

4. US — 1,576,973 cases (+25,293 today), 94,697 deaths (+1,263 today). We have tested 13,051,93 (+405,170 today). 14 day daily case average is down to 22,865 and declining, driven mostly by reductions in NY / NJ. New York is down 7,000 cases per day from their peak (from 9k to 2k daily).

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5. US Cases by Day — This chart shows the daily cases by day of the week since 3/2, with each week having its own “wave”. The day of the week charts reflect the overall reduction in cases on a national level. Lots of places are still seeing case growth, and we still are nowhere near having this under control.

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6. States per 10k — Texas is 43rd on Testing, with 265 tests per 10k people. We are 39th in Cases per 10k at 18.3, with a 6.89% positive rate, behind Kentucky and ahead of South Carolina. Texas is 41st in Deaths per 10k people at 0.50, with a 2.75% mortality rate, behind South Dakota and ahead of Tennessee. I know it makes it a bit of an eye chart, but all states are on the chart so you can see the scale of where Texas lands.

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7. **Friday Chart** 50 States 14 Day Daily Case Average. This is the rolling trend to illustrate where different states are on their fight against the virus.

Of all 50 states, we have 7 Blue (66% reduction in daily cases from peak), 9 Orange (33% reduction in daily cases from peak), 34 Red (inconsistent, flat, or rising)

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8. Texas — 53,053 cases (+1,380 today), 1,460 deaths (+34 today), 744,937 tests. The 14 day daily case average continues to rise, sitting at 1,215 per day. Yet now we open, we stop wearing masks, we stop social distancing, as though this is over. (We “suggest” those things. People choose to ignore.)

Daily Case Averages

  • 04/23–817
  • 04/30–846
  • 05/07–956
  • 05/14–1,125
  • 05/21–1,215
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9. TX Cases by Day — This chart shows the daily cases in Texas by day of the week since 3/2, with each week having its own “wave”. Current week (heavy magenta line) is of course high, which just reflects the fact that the virus is still here and there are more people than ever to infect.

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10. Texas Counties — Top 5 on cases are Harris (10,283), Dallas (8,273), Tarrant (4,711), Travis (2,644), and Bexar (2,322). 10 counties have over 1,000 cases, 53 counties have 100+ cases, 140 have 10+, and 225 have at least 1 case. 3 counties have lost 100+ Texans, 28 counties have lost 10+, 109 have lost at least 1. The map looks like a really bad case of the chicken pox because the virus doesn’t really care about labels like county lines. It’s just looking for hosts. It will go anywhere, anytime it gets a chance.

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11. TX Counties per 1k — Top 5 on Cases per 1k residents are Moore (26.95), Potter (18.35), Donley (8.13), Walker (7.62), and Panola (7.56). The virus is all over the state, not just the big counties.

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I’ll keep updating things daily. I believe people need to see the numbers at all levels to really understand things. Hopefully a few of you out there find this useful. Please feel free to grab screenshots from here or the actual dashboards and share them anywhere you can.

Thanks for reading all the way to the bottom.

Stay in if you can. Stay safe.

Mobile friendly version of the dashboards is here: bit.ly/uscovid19mapm

Regular version (where I pull all of these screenshots from) is here: bit.ly/uscovid19map

I chart Texas Politics at christackettnow.com and write about things that matter (to me at least) whenever the muse hits.

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