COVID-19 Trends 06/09/2020

I live in Texas, so all of what follows will have a markedly United States and Texas lens, so know that going in. All data is pulled from Johns Hopkins and the COVID Tracking Project and re-visualized on my site.

It’s been a bit. A lot happening around us. But it’s time to revisit and see how things are going.

  1. World — 7,242,235 cases (+109,406 today), 411,436 deaths (+3,792 today). The 7 day daily case average is pushing up more than a little. Since May 1, the average has moved from 77,183 to 123,428. Today was a new daily case high.

2. World in 7 Day Increments — You can see the increase in worldwide cases each week over the past 5. Notice how deaths had been decreasing each week until the past two, when the trend reversed.

3. Countries per 100k — The US is 14th on Testing per 100k people, testing 6.69% of the population, below the Belarus and ahead of Australia. The US is 4th in Cases per 100k people at 598, with a 8.94% positive rate, just below Peru and ahead of Iceland. And finally, the US is 9th in Deaths per 100k people at 33.83, with a 5.66% mortality rate, just below Ireland and ahead of Switzerland.

4. US — 1,980,096 cases (+18,593 today), 112,009 deaths (+1,004 today). We have tested 21,040,486 (+432,599 today). 7 day daily case average is at 21,112, and the 7 day daily death average is at 830.

5. United States in 7 Day Increments — Tests have increased each week over the previous 7 weeks, sometimes by a lot, sometimes by a little. Cases have decreased each week, but it has been a very slow decline, with the past four weeks seeing case counts decline by -3.8%, -4.2%, -0.5%, and most recently -2.5%. That isn’t enough progress. We have seen deaths decreasing 6 out of the past 7 weeks. Good, but this is a national trend. Individual states can quickly get into trouble.

6. States per 10k — Texas is 47th on Testing, with 395 tests per 10k people. We are 39th in Cases per 10k at 27.24, with a 6.89% positive rate, behind South Carolina and ahead of Kentucky. Texas is 41st in Deaths per 10k people at 0.65, with a 2.4% mortality rate, behind Maine and ahead of Tennessee. I know it makes it a bit of an eye chart, but all states are on the chart so you can see the scale of where Texas lands.

7. Texas — 79,997 cases (+1,748 today), 1,892 deaths (+24 today), 1,147,355 tests (+46,909 today). The 7 day daily case average has gone from 954 on 05/26 and risen to 1,574 as of today, 06/09. That isn’t very good. We still won’t require masks in public. <sigh>

8. Texas in 7 Day Increments — Just look back at the case counts over the past 7 weeks and 5 have seen increases, 1 was essentially flat, and one real dip. The past two weeks have seen SIGNIFICANT increases in case loads. And the positive test rate is staying mostly static to rising, a scary reality as testing increases.

9. Texas Counties — Top 5 on cases are Harris (15,238), Dallas (12,645), Tarrant (6,433), Travis (3,976), and Bexar (3,513). 13 counties have over 1,000 cases, 65 counties have 100+ cases, 162 have 10+, and 236 have at least 1 case. 3 counties have lost 100+ Texans, 34 counties have lost 10+, 124 have lost at least 1. The map looks like a really bad case of the chicken pox because the virus doesn’t really care about labels like county lines. It’s just looking for hosts. It will go anywhere, anytime it gets a chance.

10. TX Counties per 1k — Top 5 on Cases per 1k residents are Moore (40.21), Jones (32.14), Walker (25.84), Potter (23.12), and Titus (16.89). The virus is all over the state, not just the big counties.

I do have the 7 day increment charts for both cases and deaths on my site for all Texas Counties, so please check it out if you are wanting that level of info. Here is Dallas County as an example. You can see there was a peak of cases 4 weeks ago, a dip, and now two consecutive weeks of rising cases again.

I’ll keep updating things daily on the site, even if I don’t post here on the regular. I believe people need to see the numbers at all levels to really understand things. Hopefully a few of you out there find this useful. Please feel free to grab screenshots from here or the actual dashboards and share them anywhere you can.

Thanks for reading all the way to the bottom.

Stay in if you can. Stay safe.

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