COVID-19 Trends 06/20/2020

I live in Texas, so all of what follows will have a markedly United States and Texas lens, so know that going in. All data is pulled from Johns Hopkins and the COVID Tracking Project and re-visualized on my site.

It’s once again been a bit. A lot happening around us. But it’s time to revisit and see how things are going.

  1. World — 8,791,804 cases (+128,686 today), 464,465 deaths (+4,454 today). The 7 day daily case average is surging upward. Since May 1, the average has moved from 77,183 to 146,407. The trend is certainly going the wrong way on cases. Deaths, which had dipped to a daily average low of 3,817 on May 29 have also moved to up 4,961.

2. World in 7 Day Increments — You can see the increase in worldwide cases each week over the past 7. Notice how deaths had been decreasing each week until the past three, when the trend reversed.

3. Countries per 100k — The US is 12th on Testing per 100k people, testing 8.26% of the population, below the Belarus and ahead of Italy. The US is 4th in Cases per 100k people at 681, with a 8.25% positive rate, just below Singapore and ahead of Belarus. And finally, the US is 7th in Deaths per 100k people at 36.17, with a 5.31% mortality rate, just below France and ahead of the Netherlands.

4. US — 2,256,764 cases (+34,220 today), 119,724 deaths (+596 today). We have tested 26,558,210 (+583,940 today). The daily case average is moving back up after being flat for weeks, at a low of 20,658 on May 27 and now at our current 25,918. As far as daily peaks, we hit 34,220 today, a daily case count we have not seen since May 1st.

When you look at the recovery, or lack of, vs other countries who saw their cases begin or spike around the same time as the US, the difference is striking.

  • US — 18.3% reduction from peak (and climbing)
  • Italy — 95.9% reduction from peak
  • France — 95.1% reduction from peak
  • Germany — 91.7% reduction from peak
  • United Kingdom — 77.5% reduction from peak
  • South Korea — 92.3% reduction from peak

5. United States in 7 Day Increments — Tests have increased but not by a ton. We are doing around 3 million tests per week. Cases have increased each of the past 3 weeks, +0.8%, +3.7%, and most recently +17.0%. That is NOT GOOD. We have seen deaths decreasing. Good, but this is a national trend. Individual states are quickly getting into trouble as cases surge.

6. States per 10k — Texas is 47th on Testing, with 504 tests per 10k people. We are 37th in Cases per 10k at 38.42, with a 7.61% positive rate, behind New Hampshire and ahead of Ohio. Texas is 42nd in Deaths per 10k people at 0.76, with a 1.97% mortality rate, behind Maine and ahead of Arkansas. I know it makes it a bit of an eye chart, but all states are on the chart so you can see the scale of where Texas lands.

But the overall per 100k doesn’t really tell the story. What is happening now? Over the past 7 days Texas is 2nd in new cases with 23,505, 8th in deaths with 204, and 3rd among the states with an 11.57% positive test rate. This is all bad news.

7. Texas — 111,408 cases (+4,250 today), 2,193 deaths (+20 today), 1,463,398 tests (+39,484 today). The daily case average has gone from 954 on 05/26 and risen to 3,357 as of 06/20. The line is headed almost straight up.

8. Texas in 7 Day Increments — Just look back at the case counts over the past 4 weeks. The case acceleration is scary, way outpacing any kind of increase in testing as a way to excuse it away.

9. Texas Counties — Top 5 on cases are Harris (20,874), Dallas (16,437), Tarrant (8,511), Bexar (6,344), and Travis (5,704). 22 counties have over 1,000 cases, 80 counties have 100+ cases, 162 have 10+, and 239 have at least 1 case. 5 counties have lost 100+ Texans, 35 counties have lost 10+, 132 have lost at least 1. The virus doesn’t really care about labels like county lines. It’s just looking for hosts. It will go anywhere, anytime it gets a chance.

10. TX Counties per 1k — Top 5 on Cases per 1k residents are Moore (40.82), Jones (32.80), Walker (26.41), Potter (23.59), and Titus (19.74). The virus is all over the state, not just the big counties.

I do have the 7 day increment charts for both cases and deaths on my site for all Texas Counties, so please check it out if you are wanting that level of info. Here is Bexar County as an example. You can see there was a peak of cases 4 weeks ago, a dip, and now two consecutive weeks of exploding case numbers.

Hospitalizations are going up too. This chart is from the Texas Department of State Health Services. Notice the steep hospitalization increase, going from 1,511 on 05/25 to the current 3,247 on 06/20, an increase of 114%.

I’ll keep updating things daily on the site, even if I don’t post here on the regular. I believe people need to see the numbers at all levels to really understand things. Hopefully a few of you out there find this useful. Please feel free to grab screenshots from here or the actual dashboards and share them anywhere you can.

Thanks for reading all the way to the bottom.

Stay in if you can. Stay safe.

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