COVID-19 Trends 06/30/2020

I live in Texas, so all of what follows will have a markedly United States and Texas lens, so know that going in. All data is pulled from Johns Hopkins and the COVID Tracking Project and re-visualized on my site.

We have reached the end of June. A lot happening around us. Let’s see how things are going.

  1. World — 10,475,838 cases, 511,253 deaths. Look at the trend line. It has done nothing but surge upward since the first of May, going from 77,183 cases per day on 05/01 to 173,196 case per day to close June. Deaths, which had declined through most of May, have started to tick back up during June.
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2. Countries per 100k — As much as the resident of a big house would like to tell us we are number 1 on testing (true on a raw number standpoint), when you look at the US on a per capita basis, we are 12th on tests per 100k people, testing 10.33% of the population, below the Belarus and ahead of Australia. The US is 3rd in Cases per 100k people at 796, with a 7.71% positive rate, just below Peru and ahead of Panama. And finally, the US is 7th in Deaths per 100k people at 38.49, with a 4.83% mortality rate, just below France and ahead of the Netherlands.

3. US — 2,639,444 cases (+46,470 today), 127,453 deaths (+1,297 today). We have tested over 32 million people. The case curve is pretty scary. On May 25th, our daily case average was 21,999. On June 30th, the daily case average is now 41,503, an 88% increase. We can point to a decreasing overall death rate, but as hospitalizations increase…

For those who want to say “it’s just more testing”, look at the per 7 days numbers below. When testing is going up between 4 and 12% each week, and you see cases increasing 30 to 40% in the past two weeks, it isn’t just the testing. It’s the virus spreading faster.

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4. When you look at the US trend vs other countries who saw their cases begin or spike around the same time as the US, the difference is striking.

  • US — 30.5% higher than the original peak (and climbing)
  • Italy — 95.6% reduction from peak
  • France — 93.0% reduction from peak
  • Germany — 92.8% reduction from peak
  • United Kingdom — 83.3% reduction from peak
  • South Korea — 92.8% reduction from peak

What you see in the United States reflects the ABSOLUTE FAILURE of leadership in getting a handle on a national response, followed by an ABSOLUTE FAILURE by many governors, in tandem with an ABSOLUTE FAILURE by many Americans to listen to the experts and do the hard (or not so hard) things.

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5. States per 10k — Texas is 43rd on Testing, with 644 tests per 10k people. We are 32nd in Cases per 10k at 57.69, with a 8.95% positive rate, behind New Mexico and ahead of Colorado. Texas is 42nd in Deaths per 10k people at 0.86, with a 1.49% mortality rate, behind Tennessee and ahead of Maine. I know it makes it a bit of an eye chart, but all states are on the chart so you can see the scale of where Texas lands.

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6. But the overall per 100k doesn’t really tell the story. What is happening now? Over the past 7 days, Texas is 2nd in new cases with 42,254, 6th in deaths with 245 (New Jersey reclassified deaths as COVID this week spiking their number), and 4th among the states with an 15.54% positive test rate (Puerto Rico only reports positive cases, hence their 100%). This is all bad news.

Let me put this another way. Texas has seen 25% of their OVERALL cases in the past 7 days.

7. Texas — 167,269 cases (+7,959 today), 2,496 deaths (+59 today), and 1.8 million tests. The daily case average has gone from 1,033 on 05/25 and risen to 6,036 as of 06/30. The line is headed almost straight up.

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8. Texas Counties — Top 5 on cases are Harris (31,422), Dallas (21,338), Tarrant (12,344), Bexar (12,065), and Travis (9,527). 25 counties have over 1,000 cases, 96 counties have 100+ cases, 192 have 10+, and 243 have at least 1 case. 6 counties have lost 100+ Texans, 36 counties have lost 10+, 142 have lost at least 1. The virus doesn’t really care about labels like county lines. It’s just looking for hosts. It will go anywhere, anytime it gets a chance.

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9. Looking at the last 7 days in Texas, you can see big case numbers, with 9 counties all seeing over 1,000 new cases, and 6 counties with double digit deaths. Understand the virus is all over the small counties too, which is evident when you look at the per capita numbers. There are a few from the overall numbers there, but the bulk are small population centers.

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10. Hospitalizations are going up too. This chart is from the Texas Department of State Health Services. Notice the steep hospitalization increase, going from 1,511 on 05/25 to the current 6,533 on 06/30, an increase of 332%.

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I’ll keep updating things daily on the site, even if I don’t post here on the regular. I believe people need to see the numbers at all levels to really understand things. Hopefully a few of you out there find this useful. Please feel free to grab screenshots from here or the actual dashboards and share them anywhere you can.

Thanks for reading all the way to the bottom.

Stay in if you can. Stay safe. And by all means, WEAR A MASK!

Mobile friendly version of the dashboards is here: bit.ly/uscovid19mapm

Regular version (where I pull all of these screenshots from) is here: bit.ly/uscovid19map

I chart Texas Politics at christackettnow.com and write about things that matter (to me at least) whenever the muse hits.

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